Wage Inflation

“Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything.”

This past week we saw Q4 earnings reports. Jamie Dimon, the leader of the best-run bank in the world (an obvious bellwether for the economy), professes to be extremely worried about growth, employment, commercial real estate, the lagged effects of Fed tightening policy, deficits, geopolitical risk, and weak political leadership. He thinks the Fed should initiate more Quantitative Easing. I do not.

“Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything.” Read More »

Men rise to great fortune “more through fraud than through force.”

Valuations are extreme, liquidity is falling, optimism is at record levels, and speculators are longer than they have been all year. The icing on the cake is that the market thinks there will be 6 Fed rate cuts this year. Policymakers at the Fed, most of whom are non-voters, think there will be 3. I think there will be none. The market is ahead of itself.

Men rise to great fortune “more through fraud than through force.” Read More »