Rate cut expectations

“The most important thing to remember is that inflation is not an act of God, that inflation is not a catastrophe of elements or a disease that comes like the plague. Inflation is a policy.”

Last week was another riveting week in U.S. financial markets. The Nasdaq reached new all-time highs, marking the fourth consecutive month of gains for the S&P 500, which has increased in 16 of the past 18 weeks – a 25% rise in four months. During the same period, the Magnificent Seven (Mag7) stocks surged by 40%, Nvidia by 110%, and Bitcoin by 150%, with a notable 21% increase in just the last week. Bitcoin emerged as the standout performer.

“The most important thing to remember is that inflation is not an act of God, that inflation is not a catastrophe of elements or a disease that comes like the plague. Inflation is a policy.” Read More »

“Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.”

Economic data continues to surprise to the upside; the Citi surprise index was up again from last week (44.10 vs 39.0) and the January lows (0). It is above pre-pandemic levels, and the labor market is stronger, too. Unemployment is 3.7%, with claims falling and the number of available jobs rising.

“Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.” Read More »