Markets need to figure out a normalized level of interest rates appropriate to this volatile new era of De-globalization, rising military engagement, heightened Geopolitical tensions, excessive indebtedness, and the irrational rise in deficit spending.
Markets need to figure out a normalized level of interest rates appropriate to this volatile new era of De-globalization, rising military engagement, heightened Geopolitical tensions, excessive indebtedness, and the irrational rise in deficit spending.
Volatility is extreme. Risk remains elevated. Demand-driven inflation is accelerating. The cost of money is
rising. Valuations of risk assets are vulnerable. Be patient and remain defensive.
“Remember that how you say something is as important as what you say.” Read More »
I am not fighting the Fed and expect funding rates to rise higher than the markets expect and for them to stay
higher for a longer period than the market expects. I also recognize that liquidity and momentum models may still
encourage large and sophisticated derivative trading which can propel risk assets higher.
“The whole art of war consists of guessing at what is on the other side…” Read More »