Financial Market Liquidity

“Nothing so undermines your financial judgment as the sight of your neighbor getting rich.”

The extreme performance divergence between sectors on the receiving side of the stimulus is stunning. The businesses best positioned to benefit from spending by the upper and upper-middle class are thriving — just look at the share prices of your favorite credit card company; they are at all-time highs. Those most sensitive to interest rates and, thereby, the worst positioned for tight monetary policy are or soon will be flirting with bankruptcy. If you look at commercial real estate owners and their lending banks, you’ll see that their share prices are at all-time lows.

“Nothing so undermines your financial judgment as the sight of your neighbor getting rich.” Read More »

Fed Watch is on. No rate cut this week — for sure — and traders are not betting on one in March either…

Fed Watch is on. No rate cut this week — for sure — and traders are not betting on one in March either, but Powell will probably keep the door open so that stocks and bonds do not face a drawdown.
• That means the first possibility of a cut will not present itself until May 1st.
• The Employment report comes out Friday, and earnings reports from some of the most important companies will filter in all week.
• Considering where we are with respect to valuations, the slightest negative surprise in any of the data could have outsized effects on markets.

Fed Watch is on. No rate cut this week — for sure — and traders are not betting on one in March either… Read More »