“History repeats itself, but in such cunning disguise that we never detect the resemblance…”
77.25% of the Perry Capital portfolio yields 5.09% with principal guaranteed. I sold my short 25% Treasury
positions
exposure.
Conclusion
“We have met the enemy and he is us.”
60% of the Perry Capital portfolio yields 5.09% with principal guaranteed. I sold my short 25% Treasury
positions
lower.
“We have met the enemy and he is us.” Read More »
“The space between the tears we cry is the laughter – keeps us coming back for more.”
Everything I own is up in 2023. But I’m not that good. Most asset classes are up. This tells me there is too much
money around. The Fed should know this and hike.
“The space between the tears we cry is the laughter – keeps us coming back for more.” Read More »
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate…”
75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain underweight in the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not discounting for
persistent inflation and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive. I would rather watch from
the sidelines at 5% until the strategic risk/reward is in my favor.
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate…” Read More »
“Politicians are like bad horsemen who are so preoccupied with staying in the saddle…”
75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains in AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain underweight the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not discounting for
persistent inflation and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive. I would rather watch from the sidelines at 5% until the strategic risk/reward is in my favor.
“Politicians are like bad horsemen who are so preoccupied with staying in the saddle…” Read More »
“If not for you, my sky would fall. Rain would gather, too. Without your love…”
75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains in AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain extremely underweight the equity market because the valuation metrics of risk assets are not
discounting for persistent inflation and a slowing economy to the degree necessary to be attractive.
“If not for you, my sky would fall. Rain would gather, too. Without your love…” Read More »
“Ooh, a storm is threatening my very life today. If I don’t get some shelter…”
ALERT – THIS JUST IN. The FDIC announced that it has received two bids for First Republic Bank (FRC). The
bidders are JPM and PNC. Details are being scrutinized, and the winner will be announced before Monday’s
market opening.
“Ooh, a storm is threatening my very life today. If I don’t get some shelter…” Read More »
“You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today.”
75% of the Perry Capital Portfolio remains in AAA-rated, very short maturity, and very liquid securities.
I remain extremely underweight the equity market.
“You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today.” Read More »
“If someone tells you that you are the smartest person in the room…”
5% of my T-Bill exposure matured. My proceeds were a tiny portion of the $508b that migrated to money
market funds in the first quarter. The “Liquid” portfolio position remains at 50%.
“If someone tells you that you are the smartest person in the room…” Read More »
“The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while…”
I bought more bonds in the portfolio. Finally, the future is less murky. Recession odds have increased dramatically.
“The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while…” Read More »
“Capitalism without failure is like religion without sin. It does not work.”
I remain 75% in liquid cash investments, which have a guaranteed yield to maturity of 4.625%. Given recent
events, and the expectation of forthcoming stimulus, volatility remains extremely elevated, sentiment is
schizophrenic, and investors are fearful.
“Capitalism without failure is like religion without sin. It does not work.” Read More »
“What’s the deal with bank runs? I mean, why are they called bank runs?”
I still have small positions in Silver and Bitcoin.
Given recent events, things may get even crazier before they calm down. Monday’s opening and the rest of
next week will be telling. As I cautioned last week, be patient and remain defensive; I suspect that most assets
you might be interested in buying will be available at lower prices.
“What’s the deal with bank runs? I mean, why are they called bank runs?” Read More »
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover…”
Be patient and remain defensive. I suspect that most assets you might be interested in buying will be available
at lower prices.
“Remember that how you say something is as important as what you say.”
Volatility is extreme. Risk remains elevated. Demand-driven inflation is accelerating. The cost of money is
rising. Valuations of risk assets are vulnerable. Be patient and remain defensive.
“Remember that how you say something is as important as what you say.” Read More »
“The greater the obstacle, the greater the glory in overcoming it.”
I still have small positions in Silver and Bitcoin.
Volatility is extreme, risk is high rewards are low. Pick your spots. This is not one of them.
“The greater the obstacle, the greater the glory in overcoming it.” Read More »
“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important…”
I still have small positions in Silver and Bitcoin.
Play defense. Be patient.
“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important…” Read More »
“The whole art of war consists of guessing at what is on the other side…”
I am not fighting the Fed and expect funding rates to rise higher than the markets expect and for them to stay
higher for a longer period than the market expects. I also recognize that liquidity and momentum models may still
encourage large and sophisticated derivative trading which can propel risk assets higher.
“The whole art of war consists of guessing at what is on the other side…” Read More »
“Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective…”
50% of the Perry Capital portfolio is in the money market. The T-Bill position remains at 25% of portfolio assets.
Long Treasuries
and Bitcoin. Everything seems expensive.
“Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective…” Read More »
“You never know what is enough unless you know what is more than enough.”
I thought very hard about increasing exposure to Long Treasuries and the S&P 500 a month ago; I decided
not to. My decision was based on my forecast—earlier this year—of a 3.5% yield. We spiked from that level
up to 4.33% and then right back down, which I did not expect. Volatility quite elevated. Therefore, my cash
position continues to migrate toward Treasury Bills. Consequently, I must ask… what is wrong with a
guaranteed return of 4% until the dust settles and volatility settles down. Not much, in my opinion!
“You never know what is enough unless you know what is more than enough.” Read More »