The “peak Fed funds narrative” is all the rage. The risk rally off the October 27th lows completely overwhelmed the negative market inputs of persistent inflation, excessive indebtedness, deficit spending, weak political leadership, and increased fiscal and monetary stimulus.
“Just close the f**king door!” said Fed Chairman Powell after being interrupted by a protestor as he was delivering his latest Policy speech. That line attracted more attention than his comments, which suggested that more hiking may be needed to bring down inflation. Stocks ignored the restrictive bits and determined Powell was cool. The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since September 20th!
“Just close the f**king door!” said Fed Chairman Powell after being interrupted… Read More »
Global macro geo-political and economic factors will remain the most significant factors for investors in the days, weeks, and months ahead.
Chairman Powell insists the Fed isn’t thinking about rate cuts… Read More »
Global macro geo-political and economic factors will remain the most significant factors for investors in the days, weeks, and months ahead.
As the Middle East conflagration intensifies, investors are losing confidence… Read More »
Global macro geo-political and economic factors will remain the most significant factors for investors in the days, weeks, and months ahead.
War returns to the Middle East as Israel prepares for a ground invasion of Gaza. Investors’ “Flight to Safety” trades dominated market action last week. That trend will continue.
War returns to the Middle East as Israel prepares for a ground invasion of Gaza. Read More »
Inflation is rising because government spending is rising, exacerbating an already severely imbalanced labor market. The demand for labor enforces salary bargaining power, so wages are rising; this is the source of structural inflation, which is becoming systemically embedded into the economy.
Bond yields are rising because Supply is rising… and Demand is falling. Read More »
Inflation is rising because government spending is rising, exacerbating an already severely imbalanced labor market. The demand for labor enforces salary bargaining power, so wages are rising; this is the source of structural inflation, which is becoming systemically embedded into the economy.
Inflation is rising because government spending is rising… Read More »
An old axiom in finance posits that averages hide more than they reveal. It’s true and supported by history,
as is the view that consensus forecasts will be wrong. The above quote (“Everything we see hides another
thing; we always want to see what is hidden by what we see.”), from the great Belgian artist Rene Magritte,
captures that axiom. Magritte’s art challenges the observer’s preconditioned perceptions of reality, as do
markets and large swaths of market strategy.
“Everything we see hides another thing; we always want to see what is hidden…” Read More »
I have an immense appreciation for the great Victor Hugo, who is, I would suggest, perhaps our
finest writer of nautical fiction, among others. I could not help but recall, while witnessing the
margin call on the British pension system, a piece of terrific writing by Master Hugo that describes
the tumult of a loose cannon as a supernatural beast.
“You can reason with a bulldog, astonish a bull, fascinate a boa, frighten a tiger…” Read More »