big-cap tech stocks

“Nothing so undermines your financial judgment as the sight of your neighbor getting rich.”

The extreme performance divergence between sectors on the receiving side of the stimulus is stunning. The businesses best positioned to benefit from spending by the upper and upper-middle class are thriving — just look at the share prices of your favorite credit card company; they are at all-time highs. Those most sensitive to interest rates and, thereby, the worst positioned for tight monetary policy are or soon will be flirting with bankruptcy. If you look at commercial real estate owners and their lending banks, you’ll see that their share prices are at all-time lows.

“Nothing so undermines your financial judgment as the sight of your neighbor getting rich.” Read More »

“You never know what is enough unless you know what is more than enough.”

I thought very hard about increasing exposure to Long Treasuries and the S&P 500 a month ago; I decided
not to. My decision was based on my forecast—earlier this year—of a 3.5% yield. We spiked from that level
up to 4.33% and then right back down, which I did not expect. Volatility quite elevated. Therefore, my cash
position continues to migrate toward Treasury Bills. Consequently, I must ask… what is wrong with a
guaranteed return of 4% until the dust settles and volatility settles down. Not much, in my opinion!

“You never know what is enough unless you know what is more than enough.” Read More »